McLaughlin poll shows Lawler up 3 in NY-17; our forecast barely moves

A McLaughlin & Associates survey of 400 likely voters in New York's 17th District, fielded September 28-30, found Republican incumbent Mike Lawler at 50% and Democrat Cait Conley at 47%. A three-point gap in a sample that size is within ordinary sampling error. The race is close.

The poll did not change our view of the race. Our model gives Conley a 67 in 100 chance of winning the seat, up from 66% in the run an hour earlier. Our projected margin moved from D+3.6 to D+3.7. Lawler's chance stands at 33%, down from 34%.

That is a reversal in direction, if not in size, from yesterday, when our forecast for Conley edged down after an Emerson poll. Today's shift is a single point and amounts to confirmation of where the race already stood. A Lawler lead in one poll was already within the range our model expected.

The uncertainty remains wide. Our model's 5th-to-95th percentile range for the outcome runs from R+10.5 to D+17.8, nearly unchanged from R+10.5 to D+17.7 in the previous run. Outcomes favoring either candidate by several points sit comfortably inside it.

Nationally, our model gives Democrats a 98% chance of winning a House majority, with an average of 245.1 Democratic seats against the 218 needed. Our simulation correlates error nationally, by census division, by state and by district, but it does not link demographically similar districts in different regions, because we lack the data to do so. That makes our House control probability somewhat firmer than it would be with that term included. Our generic ballot average stands at D+8.1 across 30 polls.