On Election Day our model gives Democrats a 79% Senate chance and 97% in the House

As of 6:32 a.m. Eastern on Election Day, our model gives Democrats a 79 in 100 chance of winning control of the Senate and Republicans 21%. Our simulations average 52.5 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control and Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to the Republicans.

In the House, our model puts the Democratic chance of control at 97% and the Republican chance at 3%, with an average of 243.2 Democratic seats against the 218 needed. Our House simulation draws correlated error nationally, by census division, by state and by district. It does not include a term linking demographically similar districts in different places, because we lack the data for it, so our House probability is somewhat firmer than it would be with that term included.

Our generic ballot average is D+8.7, built from 43 polls over a 45-day window. The latest entries are in line with it. A John Zogby Strategies survey of 1,001 likely voters, fielded November 1-2, has Democrats at 53% and Republicans at 47%. An Ipsos poll for Reuters of 1,212 likely voters, fielded October 29 to November 2, has Democrats at 52% and Republicans at 44%. The same Ipsos fieldwork among 1,357 registered voters has Democrats at 46% and Republicans at 38%.

Several races moved in our model. The Democratic chance in the Michigan Senate race rose from 68% to 85%. A John Zogby Strategies poll of 1,001 likely voters, fielded October 31 to November 2, has Abdul El-Sayed at 51% and Mike Rogers at 49%, a close race within that poll's margin of error. In South Carolina, our estimate of the Democratic chance rose from 5% to 36%. In Maine's 2nd District, it fell from 93% to 80%.

Research Co. released a set of Senate polls, each of 450 likely voters fielded October 31 to November 2. In Texas it has James Talarico at 51% and Ken Paxton at 48%, a close race at that sample size. In Georgia it has Jon Ossoff at 55% and Mike Collins at 45%; an InsiderAdvantage poll for James Magazine Online of 2,500 likely voters over the same dates has Ossoff at 53% and Collins at 46%. In Florida, Research Co. has Ashley Moody at 53% and Angie Nixon at 46%. Its other results show John Hickenlooper at 61% to Mark Baisley's 37% in Colorado, Juliana Stratton at 56% to Don Tracy's 43% in Illinois, and Ben Ray Luján at 60% to Larry Marker's 40% in New Mexico.