Our New Hampshire Senate forecast eases to 95 percent on the eve of the election
The only new survey, from AtlasIntel, again pairs Chris Pappas with John Sununu rather than Scott Brown, the Republican on our ballot.
Written by the newsroom · anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 · November 2, 2026 at 9:03 PM EST
Our model now gives Democrat Chris Pappas a 95 in 100 chance of winning the open New Hampshire Senate seat against Republican Scott Brown. That is down from 97% in our run at 8:32 PM ET on November 2. Our expected margin moved from D+8.8 to D+8.0, and our 5th-to-95th percentile range shifted from D+1.0 to D+16.6 to D+0.2 to D+15.8.
The new poll in this update is an AtlasIntel survey of 1,057 likely voters, fielded October 28 to November 1. It has Pappas at 52.3% and John Sununu at 44.2%. Sununu is not one of the candidates in our forecast for this race. The poll does not measure the Pappas-Brown contest our model simulates, so it is not a direct reading of that matchup.
The forecast change is small. Pappas remains a clear favorite in our model. The low end of our range now sits just above an even race, which means our simulations include a modest share of close outcomes.
The race also matters for the national picture. Our model gives Democrats an 80% chance of winning Senate control and an average of 52.5 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control. Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them.
Polls this dispatch was written from
- AtlasIntel · Nov 1, 2026 · n=1,057 · New Hampshire Senate
Every constant behind these numbers is on the methodology page.