AtlasIntel poll edges our Kansas Senate odds for Hamilton to 79 percent
A large late survey puts Adam Hamilton 7 points ahead of Roger Marshall, and our model moves by a single point the day before the election.
Written by the newsroom · anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 · November 2, 2026 at 9:02 PM EST
An AtlasIntel survey of 2,038 likely voters, fielded October 28 to November 1, found Democrat Adam Hamilton at 51.9 percent and Republican Sen. Roger Marshall at 44.9 percent. That is a 7-point margin for the challenger.
The poll confirmed what our forecast already showed rather than changing it. Our model now gives Hamilton a 79 in 100 chance of winning the seat, up from 78 percent in the run at 8:32 PM ET on November 2. Marshall's chance is 21 percent, down from 22 percent. Our projected average margin moved from D+3.6 to D+3.9.
The AtlasIntel margin sits above our model's central estimate but well inside its range. Our 5th-to-95th percentile range now runs from R+4.0 to D+11.7, compared with R+4.2 to D+11.4 in the previous run. A Marshall win remains within that range.
The race carries weight for the chamber as a whole. Our model gives Democrats an 80 percent chance of winning Senate control, with an average of 52.5 Democratic seats across its simulations. Democrats need 51 seats for a majority and Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to Republicans. Our generic ballot average, built from 44 polls over 45 days, stands at D+8.7.
Polls this dispatch was written from
- AtlasIntel · Nov 1, 2026 · n=2,038 · Kansas Senate
Every constant behind these numbers is on the methodology page.