AtlasIntel has Jackson up 9 in Maine, and his chance moves back to 80 percent
The final-day survey nudges our projected margin to D+3.9, but our model still allows for a Collins win in a meaningful share of outcomes.
Written by the newsroom · anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 · November 2, 2026 at 9:03 PM EST
An AtlasIntel survey of 967 likely voters, fielded October 28 to November 1, has Democrat Troy Jackson at 53.1 percent and Republican Sen. Susan Collins at 44.0 percent in the Maine Senate race. That is a 9.1-point gap.
The poll moved our forecast modestly. Our model now gives Jackson an 80 in 100 chance of winning, up from 77% in the run at 8:32 PM ET. Collins's chance falls from 23% to 20%. Our projected margin shifts from D+3.5 to D+3.9.
The change is a partial reversal rather than new ground. Our previous piece reported Jackson's chance easing to 77% after a closer survey. The AtlasIntel result brings it back to 80%, the same level our model showed earlier on November 2.
The AtlasIntel margin is more than twice our projected margin, and our model does not take any single poll at face value. Our range of likely outcomes, from the 5th to the 95th percentile, runs from R+3.9 to D+11.7. That range still includes a Collins win, which is why a 20% chance for her is not a negligible one.
Maine is one piece of the national picture. Our model gives Democrats an 80% chance of winning Senate control, with an average of 52.5 Democratic seats against the 51 they need. The election is November 3.
Polls this dispatch was written from
- AtlasIntel · Nov 1, 2026 · n=967 · Maine Senate
Every constant behind these numbers is on the methodology page.