New poll widens Cline's projected margin in Virginia's 6th District

Republican Rep. Ben Cline leads Democrat Beth Macy 59% to 29% in a co/efficient survey of 791 likely voters in Virginia's 6th District, fielded September 28-30. That 30-point gap is the only new poll in the race.

The survey pushed our forecast further toward Cline. Our model now gives Macy a 1 in 100 chance of winning the seat, down from 2% in the run earlier this afternoon. Our expected margin moved from R+17.6 to R+21.1. The 5th-to-95th percentile range of outcomes in our model shifted from R+31.7 to R+3.5 before the poll, to R+35.2 to R+7.1 now. Even the Democratic end of that range now leaves Cline ahead by about 7 points.

The new numbers confirm the shape of the race rather than change it. Cline was a heavy favorite in our model before this poll, at 98%, and is now at 99%. What moved was the size of the margin our model expects, not the identity of the favorite.

The district sits well outside the national picture for Democrats. Our model gives Democrats a 98% chance of winning control of the House, which takes 218 seats, with an average of 245.1 Democratic seats across our simulations. That House figure is somewhat firmer than it should be: our simulation correlates error nationally, by census division, by state and within each district, but it does not link demographically similar districts in different places, because we lack the data to do so.