One-point VA-5 poll leaves our forecast for McGuire and Perriello unchanged

A new poll of Virginia's 5th District finds a close race between Republican Rep. John McGuire and Democrat Tom Perriello. An Expedition Strategies survey of 400 likely voters, fielded September 21-24, puts McGuire at 46% and Perriello at 45%. In the same survey, 6% chose an independent option.

The poll did not move our forecast. Our model gives Perriello a 29 in 100 chance of winning the seat, the same as in our previous run this morning. McGuire's chance stays at 71%. Our model's average margin is unchanged at R+4.7.

The poll confirms the picture from our last update rather than adding to it. A one-point gap in a sample of 400 is a close race, not a lead for either candidate. The poll is somewhat friendlier to Perriello than our model's average margin. It was not enough to shift an estimate that already accounts for the district's lean.

Our model's range of outcomes remains wide. Its 5th-to-95th percentile span runs from R+18.8 to D+9.3. That range covers a comfortable McGuire win and a clear Perriello win, with 32 days left before the November 3 election.

Nationally, our model gives Democrats a 98% chance of winning a House majority, which takes 218 seats. Their average in our simulations is 245.1. Our simulation draws correlated error at the national, census division and state levels, plus each district's own. It does not link demographically similar districts in different places, because we lack the data to do so. As a result, that House figure is slightly firmer than it should be.