Close Torchlight poll in OH-1 leaves Landsman's forecast essentially unchanged

A new Torchlight Strategies poll of Ohio's 1st District shows a close race. The survey of 400 likely voters, fielded September 29 to October 2, has Democratic incumbent Greg Landsman at 45.8% and Republican Eric Conroy at 44.2%, with Nathan Weise at 5.4%.

The poll did not change our forecast in any meaningful way. Our model gives Landsman a 99 in 100 chance of winning the seat, the same as in the run before this poll was added. His expected margin in our model moved from D+19.7 to D+19.6. The model's 5th-to-95th percentile range for the margin is unchanged at D+6.5 to D+32.8.

The Torchlight result sits well apart from that picture. The margin it reports is narrower than the low end of our model's range. It is one poll from one pollster with a modest sample, and the model weighs it alongside everything else it uses for this district rather than treating it as a new baseline.

Nationally, our average of 37 generic-ballot polls over the past 45 days stands at D+8.2. Our model gives Democrats a 99% chance of winning a House majority, which requires 218 seats, and puts their expected total at 244.9. That chamber-level figure is somewhat firmer than it should be: our simulation correlates error nationally, by census division, by state and by district, but it does not link demographically similar districts in different places, because we lack the data to do so.

The election is November 3, 18 days from now.