Quantus polls put Landsman ahead by under four points in OH-1

Three new Quantus Insights readings in Ohio's 1st District, all from surveys of 509 likely voters fielded August 21-24, show a close race. One has Democratic incumbent Greg Landsman at 46.5% and Republican Eric Conroy at 42.7%. A second has Landsman at 47.9% and Conroy at 44.6%. A third, with no undecided share, has Landsman at 52.0% and Conroy at 48.0%. The spread across the three is 3.3 to 4.0 points, inside the range sampling error alone would produce at that sample size.

Our model responded, but not dramatically. It now gives Landsman a 93 in 100 chance, down from 97% in the run at 2:30 PM ET on August 26, with Conroy at 7%. The projected margin moved from D+18.3 to D+14.6. The 5th-to-95th percentile band widened from D+1.8 to D+34.9 to R+1.7 to D+31.2, meaning our simulations now include outcomes in which Conroy wins narrowly.

That is a shift in degree rather than in kind. The new numbers are the first in this payload to put the OH-1 margin in the low single digits, and the model has priced them in by lowering its central estimate and admitting more downside. It still treats Landsman as the clear favorite. All three readings come from a single pollster in a single field period, which limits how much any one of them can move an average.

Nationally, our generic-ballot average stands at D+6.5 across 27 polls in a 45-day window, and our model gives Democrats a 94% chance of reaching the 218 seats needed for House control, with a mean of 241 seats. Our simulation correlates error nationally, by census division, by state and by district, but has no term linking demographically similar districts across regions. Without it, that 94% is marginally firmer than a fuller accounting would leave it.