Democrats' Senate chance edges to 61% as four House districts shift in our model

With 15 days until the November 3 election, our model gives Democrats a 61% chance of winning a Senate majority and Republicans a 39% chance, as of 6:32 AM ET on October 19. That is down from the 62% we reported yesterday. Our model's average outcome is 51.0 Democratic seats, exactly the number Democrats need for control. Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them.

The House picture is steadier. Our model gives Democrats a 99 in 100 chance of winning control, with an average of 245.5 Democratic seats against the 218 needed. That figure is somewhat firmer than it should be. Our simulation correlates error nationally, by census division, by state and within each district, but it does not yet link demographically similar districts in different parts of the country, because we lack the data to do so. Our generic ballot average is D+8.4, built from 37 polls over a 45-day window.

The largest overnight moves in our model were in House districts. Our estimate of the Democratic chance in MN-1 rose from 22% to 29%, and in AK-1 from 1% to 6%. It fell in CA-48 from 32% to 27%, and in NY-21 from 13% to 10%. In the Kansas Senate race, our Democratic estimate now stands at 54%. A new InsiderAdvantage survey of 1,200 likely voters there, fielded October 13-14, found Republican Roger Marshall at 48% and Democrat Adam Hamilton at 47%, a close race.

InsiderAdvantage also polled Maine with the same sample size and dates and found Democrat Troy Jackson at 49% and Republican Susan Collins at 47%, also close. In Maine's 2nd District, a Tulchin Research survey of 500 likely voters, fielded October 12-14, had Democrat Matthew Dunlap at 50% and Republican Paul LePage at 46%, a gap that leaves the race close. A Trafalgar Group survey of 1,094 likely voters in Iowa, fielded October 13-15, found Republican Ashley Hinson at 45.9% and Democrat Josh Turek at 44.2%, with 3.5% for other candidates. Trafalgar's Minnesota survey of 1,079 likely voters over the same dates had the Democrat at 48.1% and the Republican at 44.6%.

In Florida, an ActiVote survey of 400 likely voters, fielded September 27 to October 15, found Republican Ashley Moody at 53.1% and the Democrat at 46.9%. Two more Texas Senate polls arrived alongside those we have already covered. InsiderAdvantage, surveying 1,200 likely voters October 13-14, had Ken Paxton at 49% and James Talarico at 48%. ActiVote, surveying 400 likely voters from September 30 to October 14, had Talarico at 51.9% and Paxton at 48.1%. Both describe a close race.