Two Minnesota polls show a close race; our forecast stays at 94 percent

Two new surveys of the Minnesota Senate race from TIPP Insights, sponsored by the League of American Workers and fielded August 31 to September 2, both show a close contest. Among 1,192 likely voters, the Democrat took 43.96 percent to the Republican's 41.86, with 2.99 percent for an independent and 1.02 percent for another candidate. Among 1,494 registered voters, it was 39.99 percent for the Democrat and 37.98 for the Republican, with 4.08 percent independent and 1.13 percent other. A gap of about two points in samples that size is not a measurable lead; the right description is a close race with a large undecided share.

Our forecast did not move on them. The model gives the Democrat a 94 in 100 chance of winning the seat, unchanged from our previous run at 2:32 PM ET, with a mean margin of D+9.7 against D+9.6 before and a 5th-to-95th-percentile range running from R+0.6 to D+19.8. That range already contained results far tighter than these two polls, which is part of why they registered as confirmation rather than new information.

The gap between the TIPP numbers and our mean margin is worth stating plainly. Our estimate of the expected result in Minnesota is closer to ten points than to two, and it is built on more than these two surveys. This site's earlier coverage described the polling here as showing a mid-single-digit Democratic edge; the TIPP pair sits below that, and a single pollster fielding two samples on the same dates counts for less than two independent reads.

The seat is open, held by Democrat Tina Smith. Nationally, our average of 24 polls over the past 45 days puts the generic ballot at D+6.1. In the Senate, our model gives Democrats a 42 in 100 chance of winning control, with a mean of 49.8 seats; Democrats need 51 seats and Republicans 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to the Republicans.