Minnesota Senate forecast falls to 78 percent for the Democrat

Our model now gives the Democrat a 78 in 100 chance in the Minnesota Senate race, down from 94 percent in our run of September 8. That is a move of 16.3 points toward the Republican over seven days. Our projected margin narrowed over the same span, from D+9.7 to D+4.6, and our 5th-to-95th percentile range shifted from R+0.5 to D+19.9 to R+5.2 to D+14.5.

Two polls carry field dates after the September 8 run. Quantus Insights surveyed 720 likely voters from September 8 to 10 and put the Democrat at 48.9 percent and the Republican at 45.4 percent. A co/efficient survey of 833 likely voters, fielded September 14 and 15, had the Democrat at 43 percent and the Republican at 42 percent, with 2 percent for an independent and 2 percent for another candidate — close enough that the poll does not separate them.

Those readings are consistent with a tighter race than our earlier projected margin implied, and we published a note on the Quantus survey on September 11, when our estimate stood at 90 percent. The further decline since then is larger than the single co/efficient poll alone plainly accounts for. The model moved; the payload does not identify what else drove it, and we are not going to guess.

For comparison, TIPP Insights polling for the League of American Workers, fielded August 31 to September 2, had the Democrat at 43.96 percent to 41.86 percent among 1,192 likely voters and 39.99 to 37.98 among 1,494 registered voters. This is an open seat; the incumbent is Democrat Tina Smith.

Nationally, our model gives Democrats a 48 percent chance of Senate control and Republicans 51 percent, with a mean of 50.1 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control and Republicans 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them.