Minnesota Senate forecast moves to 92 percent for the Democrat

Our model now gives the Democrat a 92 in 100 chance of winning Minnesota's open Senate seat. That is up from 83% in our run of September 23 at 8:32 PM ET, a gain of 8.2 points of Democratic win probability over six days. The headline figures are rounded, which is why they differ by slightly more than the unrounded change.

The expected margin moved with it. Our model's mean margin is now D+7.7, up from D+5.6 in the earlier run. The range of outcomes shifted in the same direction. Our 5th-to-95th percentile band now runs from R+1.5 to D+17.0, compared with R+3.9 to D+15.1 six days ago. The Republican end of that range remains on the other side of zero, so our model still allows a Republican win in a minority of simulations, at 8%.

The information available for this note includes no new Minnesota polls from the period between the two runs. It does not identify a cause for the shift. The model moved, and the reason is not established here.

Nationally, our model gives Democrats a 59% chance of winning Senate control and Republicans 41%. Democrats need 51 seats for a majority and Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to that party. Our model's average outcome is 51.0 Democratic seats. Our generic ballot average stands at D+8.7, based on 29 polls over a 45-day window. The election is 35 days away.