Morning Consult finds a 45-41 Minnesota Senate race as our forecast eases to 73%

A Morning Consult survey of 1,000 registered voters in Minnesota, sponsored by The Daily Agenda and fielded October 2-7, puts the Democratic Senate candidate at 45 percent and the Republican at 41 percent. It is the only new poll in this update.

Our model now gives the Democrat a 73 in 100 chance of winning this open seat, down from 76% in the run completed at 4:31 PM ET today. The Republican's chance rises to 27% from 24%. Our average margin moves to D+3.2 from D+3.9. Earlier today we reported the forecast holding at 76%; this poll ends that steadiness, though the change is small.

The range of outcomes our model considers plausible remains wide. Its 5th-to-95th percentile span runs from R+5.6 to D+12.1, compared with R+4.9 to D+12.7 in the previous run. That interval includes Republican wins, and the shift in this update tilts it slightly toward them.

The Morning Consult result sits close to our average and does not alter the basic picture: a Democratic advantage with real uncertainty around it. The survey measured registered voters rather than likely voters, which is worth keeping in mind when comparing it with other polls of the race.

Nationally, our model gives Democrats a 61% chance of winning Senate control, with a mean of 51.0 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control; Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them.