Minnesota Senate polling still shows a mid-single-digit Democratic edge

The newly logged polling in Minnesota's open Senate race is not fresh, and it does not say anything the earlier numbers did not. The most recent of the group, an Impact Research survey of 808 likely voters fielded May 26-28, 2026, had the Democrat at 51 percent and the Republican at 44. An Emerson College poll of 1,000 likely voters fielded February 6-8, 2026, had it 47.1 percent to 40.6 percent. Four Impact Research releases from the same July 8-11, 2025 field period, each of 604 likely voters, put the Democrat at 48 or 49 percent and the Republican at 45 — close enough that those surveys are better read as a tight race than as a lead.

Our forecast now gives the Democrat a 93 in 100 chance in Minnesota, up from 91 percent in the run at 4:03 PM ET on August 31. The mean margin moved from D+8.8 to D+9.7. Our 5th-to-95th percentile range is R+0.8 to D+20.3, slightly narrower than the R+1.8 to D+19.3 in the prior run. That is a small adjustment, not a change of direction, and it comes on top of the modest easing this site reported earlier in August.

The seat sits inside a Senate map our model rates as close to even. We give Democrats a 49 percent chance of winning control and Republicans 50 percent, with a mean of 50.2 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for a majority; Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them. Our national generic-ballot average is D+6.5 across 28 polls in the last 45 days. In the House, our model gives Democrats a 93 percent chance of reaching the 218 seats needed for a majority, with a mean of 240.1 seats.