Minnesota Senate poll is tied at 42-42; our forecast eases to 65 percent

A SurveyUSA poll for KSTP-TV Minneapolis, fielded September 9-14 among 654 likely voters, has the Minnesota Senate race even at 42-42, with 2 percent for an independent candidate and 2 percent for other candidates.

Our model now gives the Democrat a 65 in 100 chance of winning the seat, down from 82 percent in our previous run earlier today. The projected mean margin is D+2.4, narrowed from D+5.5. Our 5th-to-95th percentile range runs from R+7.5 to D+12.2, wider on the Republican side than the R+4.3 to D+15.3 range we carried before.

This is a continuation rather than a turn. Our published forecast for this race has moved down in steps this month, and the direction of the polling has been consistent: close numbers, with the Democratic edge smaller than it was in late August. The tied SurveyUSA result is the first of these to show no separation at all. The seat is open; Tina Smith is the Democratic incumbent.

The national picture around it has not moved with it. Our generic ballot average, built from 27 polls over the last 45 days, stands at D+7.2. For Senate control, our model gives Democrats a 47 percent chance and Republicans 53 percent, with a mean of 50.0 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for a majority and Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to the Republicans. On that arithmetic, a seat priced at 65 percent carries weight well beyond Minnesota.

In the House, our model gives Democrats a 96 in 100 chance of a majority, with a mean of 242.4 seats against the 218 needed. One caveat is ours: our simulation correlates error nationally, by census division, by state and within each district, but we have no data to correlate demographically similar districts across state lines, so that House number is marginally firmer than it should be.