InsiderAdvantage puts Moody up 7 in Florida as our model slips to 30 in 100

A new InsiderAdvantage survey of 600 likely voters in Florida, fielded September 20-21, has Republican Ashley Moody at 49 percent and the Democrat at 42 percent in the state's special Senate election.

Our model now gives the Democrat a 30 in 100 chance of winning the seat, down from 36 percent in the run at 8:32 p.m. ET. The mean margin moved to R+3.1 from R+2.2. Our 5th-to-95th percentile range runs from R+12.7 to D+6.5, a span that still contains outcomes on both sides.

That is a modest shift, and it returns the forecast to roughly where it stood earlier this month rather than breaking new ground. The poll is the most Republican-leaning number in the recent Florida sequence we have written about, and the model treats it as one survey among many: a seven-point margin in a 600-person sample moves the average without resetting it.

Nationally, our generic ballot average stands at D+7.6 across 29 polls in a 45-day window. Our Senate estimate gives Democrats a 52 percent chance of winning control against 47 percent for Republicans, with a mean of 50.5 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control and Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to the Republicans. Florida sits on the Republican side of our current expectation, which is part of why the Senate number is close to even.

In the House, our model gives Democrats a 97 in 100 chance of reaching the 218 seats needed for control, with a mean of 243.7 seats. One caveat is ours to own: our simulation correlates error nationally, by census division, by state and by district, but we have no data to correlate demographically similar districts across regions, so that House probability is marginally firmer than a fuller error model would leave it.