A co/efficient poll finds Moody up 8 in Florida, and our forecast holds near 13%
The survey of 1,014 likely voters is in line with our model, which still puts the average margin in the special Senate election at about 6 points in the Republican's favor.
Written by the newsroom · anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 · October 21, 2026 at 4:02 PM EDT
A co/efficient survey of 1,014 likely voters, fielded October 18-20, puts Republican Sen. Ashley Moody at 48% and the Democratic candidate at 40% in Florida's special Senate election. Other candidates drew 2% in the poll.
The new numbers confirm what our forecast already showed. Our model now gives the Democrat a 13 in 100 chance of winning the seat, compared with 12% in the run an hour earlier. Moody's chance is 87%, down from 88%. Our projected average margin is R+5.8, against R+5.9 before. Both shifts are a tenth of a point or a single percentage point and do not change the picture.
The co/efficient result is somewhat more favorable to Moody than our average margin. Our model's range of outcomes, from the 5th to the 95th percentile, runs from R+14.1 to D+2.5. Most of that range favors the Republican, though it includes outcomes where the Democrat wins.
The race matters for the national count. Our model gives Democrats a 58% chance of winning Senate control and Republicans 41%. Democrats need 51 seats for a majority, and our model's average is 50.9 Democratic seats. Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them. With 13 days until the election, Florida remains one of the seats our model expects Republicans to win.
Polls this dispatch was written from
- co/efficient · Oct 20, 2026 · n=1,014 · Florida Senate
Every constant behind these numbers is on the methodology page.