Moody at 50 in latest Florida polling as our model holds at 34 in 100 for Democrats

The most recent numbers in the Florida Senate special election come from the University of North Florida, which surveyed 848 likely voters July 8-17 and tested more than one matchup. In one, Republican Ashley Moody led an unnamed Democrat 50.0 percent to 41.6 percent. In the other, Moody led 49.9 percent to 40.2 percent. Both put her at or just under half the vote.

Our model now gives the Democrat a 34 in 100 chance of winning the seat, with a mean margin of R+4.7. The previous run, from earlier the same afternoon, had the Democrat at 33 percent with the same mean margin. That is not a change; it is the same picture with the arithmetic rounded a tick differently. The spread around it remains wide: our 5th-to-95th percentile range runs from R+23.3 to D+14.0, which is to say a comfortable Republican win and a clear Democratic one are both inside the model's range.

The July polling sits in the same band as what came before it. An Echelon Insights survey of 406 likely voters for NetChoice, fielded April 3-9, had Moody at 50 percent to 43 percent. Three Emerson College matchups from a March 29-31 poll of 1,125 likely voters had Moody between 45.3 and 47.3 percent, against Democratic numbers between 36.3 and 38.0. Two University of North Florida matchups fielded February 21 to March 2, with samples of 768 and 772 likely voters, had Moody at 46 and 45 percent to 38 percent. A UNF poll of 728 likely voters for Florida Watch, taken October 15-25, 2025, had Moody up 49 to 38.

Nationally, our model gives Democrats a 49 percent chance of a Senate majority. Their mean is 50.2 seats; they need 51, and Republicans need 50, because a 50-50 tie goes to the Republican vice president. Florida is one of the seats that keeps that estimate close to even without making it likely.