Change Research poll shows Florida Senate race tied at 47 as our forecast holds

A Change Research survey of 1,107 likely voters in Florida, fielded September 7-9 and sponsored by Freedom Project USA, has the Senate special election tied: 47% for Republican Ashley Moody, 47% for the Democrat.

Our model now gives the Democrat a 34 in 100 chance in Florida, with a mean margin of R+4.5. Before this run it was 33% and R+4.7. The 5th-to-95th percentile range runs from R+22.5 to D+13.5, essentially where it sat at the previous run, which spanned R+22.6 to D+13.2. In other words, the new number nudged the forecast and did not reshape it. Our average still has Moody, the incumbent, ahead by more than the poll does, and the model discounts any single survey against that average.

That is the substance of the change since our last piece on this race, which had Moody at 50 in Florida polling and the model at the same 34 in 100. The topline has tightened; our estimate of the race has not.

The Florida seat matters to the chamber arithmetic. Our model has Democrats at 49% to win Senate control and Republicans at 50%, with a mean of 50.2 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for a majority and Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to the Republicans. A single close state can decide which side of that line the chamber lands on, and Florida is one of the states our model does not treat as settled.

Nationally, our generic-ballot average stands at D+6.7 across 25 polls in the last 45 days. Fifty-four days remain before the November 3 election.