Change Research finds Florida Senate race within a point as our model edges to 21 in 100

A new Change Research survey of 1,063 likely voters, fielded September 25-27 and sponsored by Freedom Project USA, finds the Florida Senate special election close. Republican Sen. Ashley Moody takes 48 percent to 47 percent for the Democrat. A one-point gap is not a lead in a poll of this kind. The race in this survey is effectively even.

The poll moved our forecast a little. Our model now gives the Democrat a 21% chance of winning the seat, up from 18% in the run completed earlier this afternoon. Moody's chance falls to 79% from 82%. Our projected margin narrows to R+4.7 from R+5.2.

That is a modest shift, not a reversal. A single close poll carries limited weight against the rest of the evidence in our model, which still has Moody ahead. The model's range of plausible outcomes remains wide. Its 5th-to-95th percentile band runs from R+14.0 to D+4.7, so a Democratic win sits inside what the model considers realistic, though well short of the likelier results.

The seat matters for the national picture. Our model gives Democrats a 54% chance of winning Senate control, with an average of 50.7 Democratic seats across its simulations. Democrats need 51 seats for a majority. Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them.