Florida Senate moves 11 points toward Moody in a week in our model

Our model now gives the Democrat an 18 in 100 chance in the Florida Senate special election, down from 29 percent in our run of September 17. That is a move of 11 points of Democratic win probability over seven days, toward Republican Ashley Moody, the incumbent.

The mean margin in our simulations moved with it, from R+3.2 a week ago to R+5.2 now. The spread narrowed slightly on the Democratic side: our 5th-to-95th percentile range runs from R+14.7 to D+4.2, against R+13.0 to D+6.5 in the earlier run.

The newest poll in the average is from the Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research, a survey of 830 likely voters fielded September 14-21, which had Moody at 51 percent and the Democrat at 40. It follows an InsiderAdvantage survey of 600 likely voters fielded September 20-21, which had Moody at 49 and the Democrat at 42. Both are more favorable to Moody than the St. Pete Polls survey for Florida Politics, 913 likely voters fielded September 15-17, which put Moody at 45.2 percent and the Democrat at 44.8 — close enough that the race was effectively tied in that poll.

Those three surveys are what arrived around the week in question, and the two later ones point the same direction. Our race average is not the only input, so the full 11-point move is not attributable to the Stetson result alone.

Nationally, our model gives Democrats a 52 percent chance of Senate control, with a mean of 50.5 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control and Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to the Republicans. Florida is one of the seats inside that margin. Election day is November 3, 40 days out.