Two Global Strategy Group polls of PA-1 tilt our forecast back toward Fitzpatrick

Two Global Strategy Group surveys of Pennsylvania's 1st District have entered our average, and both show Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick ahead of Democrat Bob Harvie. The more recent, of 500 likely voters fielded August 5-9, had Fitzpatrick at 47 percent and Harvie at 43. An earlier one, of 400 likely voters fielded March 19-22, had Fitzpatrick at 48 and Harvie at 42.

Our model now gives Harvie a 36 in 100 chance, down from 37 percent in our previous run. The mean margin moved to R+3.7 from R+3.1. That is a small step back from the direction the average was moving earlier today, when a GQR poll for House Majority PAC of 400 likely voters, fielded August 19-23, put Fitzpatrick at 49 percent and Harvie at 48 — close enough that it does not establish a lead for either candidate.

Taken together, the three polls describe a race that has not moved much: Fitzpatrick between 47 and 49 percent in each, Harvie between 42 and 48. Our model's uncertainty band is still wide. It puts the 5th to 95th percentile range of the outcome from R+20.0 to D+12.5, which covers a comfortable Republican win and a clear Democratic one.

Nationally, our average of 28 generic-ballot polls over the past 45 days stands at D+6.5. Our model gives Democrats a 93 percent chance of reaching the 218 seats needed for a House majority, with a mean of 240.1 seats. One caveat on that figure is ours: our simulation correlates polling error nationally, by census division, by state and by district, but we have no data to correlate demographically similar districts across regions. Without that term, the House control number is somewhat firmer than it should be.