New OH-15 poll puts Carey and Leonard a point apart as our model moves by one

A Hart Research Associates survey of 500 likely voters in Ohio's 15th District, fielded September 22-24 and sponsored by House Majority PAC, found Democrat Don Leonard at 46% and Republican Rep. Mike Carey at 45%. A one-point gap in a sample that size is not a lead. The poll shows a close race. It reported figures only for the two major-party candidates, not for Brennan Barrington, who is also on the ballot.

Our model now gives Leonard a 41 in 100 chance of winning the seat, up from 40% in our previous run earlier today. Carey's chance moved from 60% to 59%. Our projected margin did not change: it stands at R+2.1, the same as before the poll was added. Our range of plausible outcomes, from the 5th to the 95th percentile, runs from R+16.5 to D+12.3, nearly identical to the prior run.

The new survey is the first in this payload to show Leonard nominally ahead, yet it moved our estimate only at the margin. One poll of 500 voters carries limited weight on its own, and our model continues to rate the district as competitive with a modest tilt toward the incumbent.

Nationally, our model gives Democrats a 98% chance of winning a House majority, with an average of 245.8 Democratic seats against the 218 needed. That figure is slightly more confident than it would be if our simulation also linked errors across demographically similar districts in different parts of the country, a factor we do not currently model. Our generic ballot average stands at D+8.3 across 27 polls from the past 45 days.