A tied poll in Ohio's 9th District barely moves our forecast for Kaptur

A new survey in Ohio's 9th District shows a tied race. The DCCC Targeting Team poll of 481 likely voters, fielded September 22-23, has Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur and Republican Derek Merrin at 48% each.

The poll changed little in our forecast. Our model now gives Kaptur a 91 in 100 chance of winning the seat, down from 92% in the run earlier this morning. Merrin's chance rose from 8% to 9%. Our projected average margin moved from D+12.0 to D+11.9.

The small shift reflects a single poll with a modest sample, set against the rest of the evidence our model weighs. In that poll the race is close, with neither candidate ahead. Our model's picture is wider than any one survey. Its 5th-to-95th percentile range for the outcome runs from R+2.5 to D+26.2, compared with R+2.3 to D+26.2 before this poll was added. The Republican end of that range edged slightly outward. The Democratic end did not move.

The district sits inside a national environment our average puts at D+8.6 on the generic ballot, based on 29 polls over 45 days. Our model gives Democrats a 99% chance of winning a House majority of at least 218 seats, with an average of 246.7 Democratic seats. That figure is somewhat firmer than it should be. Our simulation correlates error nationally, by census division, by state and by district, but it does not yet link demographically similar districts in different places, because we lack the data to do so.

With 35 days until the November 3 election, the new poll confirms that our forecast still favors Kaptur while leaving room for a closer result.