Democrats at 53 percent for the Senate in our model as Kansas and Minnesota slide

Our model gives Democrats a 53 in 100 chance of winning control of the Senate, with Republicans at 46%. The average simulated outcome is 50.6 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control. Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to the Republicans. In the House, our model puts the Democratic chance of a majority at 98% and the Republican chance at 2%, with an average of 245.2 Democratic seats against the 218 needed. That House figure is somewhat firmer than it should be. Our simulation correlates error nationally, by census division, by state and by district. It does not yet link demographically similar districts in different places, because we lack the data to do so.

Our generic ballot average stands at D+8.2, drawn from 30 polls over a 45-day window. The latest entry, an AlphaROC survey of 1,000 adults for the Independent Center, fielded September 25-28, had Democrats at 43.4% and Republicans at 37.1%.

The largest overnight move in our model came in Kansas, where the Democratic chance in the Senate race fell from 37% to 19%. The Democratic chance in Minnesota fell from 87% to 76%. An InsiderAdvantage survey of 1,200 likely voters there, fielded September 28-29, found the Democrat at 46% and the Republican at 45%, a close race. In Ohio, the Democratic chance rose from 67% to 71%. A separate InsiderAdvantage poll of 1,200 likely voters, fielded September 28-29, had Sherrod Brown at 44% and Jon Husted at 43%, also close. In the House, the Democratic chance in VA-1 rose from 41% to 48%, and in UT-1 from 1% to 5%.

In Maine, a co/efficient survey of 1,240 likely voters, fielded September 28-30, found Susan Collins at 48% and Troy Jackson at 46%. The race is close in that poll. In North Carolina, Big Data Poll, for the Public Polling Project, released two versions of a September 27-29 survey. Among 642 likely voters, Roy Cooper led Michael Whatley 50.8% to 38.5%. Among 698 registered voters, the figures were 49.3% to 37.8%.

In Iowa, a Quantus Insights survey of 738 likely voters, fielded September 28-29, had Ashley Hinson at 48.5% and Josh Turek at 46.6%, with 1.7% for other candidates. In a head-to-head version of the same poll, Hinson had 51.2% and Turek 48.8%. Both readings show a close race. In New York's 17th District, an Emerson College poll for PIX 11 of 400 likely voters, fielded September 27-29, found Cait Conley at 47.9% and Mike Lawler at 45.6%, another close result. The election is 32 days away.