Trafalgar poll in Ohio has Brown up about four, and our estimate holds at 72 in 100

A Trafalgar Group survey of 1,085 likely voters in Ohio, fielded September 14-16, put Democrat Sherrod Brown at 45.4 percent and Republican Jon Husted, the incumbent, at 41.5 percent in the state's special Senate election.

Our model gives Brown a 72 in 100 chance of winning the seat, and Husted 28 percent. That is the same figure the model carried before this poll was added. Our projected margin is Brown by 3.4 points, also unchanged, with a 5th-to-95th percentile range running from Husted by 6.4 points to Brown by 13.2. The only movement between runs was a tenth of a point at the Republican end of that range.

So the new number confirms rather than shifts. It sits close to where our average already was, and it is the third Ohio survey in roughly a week to show Brown ahead by a few points. The distribution around our central estimate remains wide enough to include a Husted win by a comfortable margin.

Nationally, our average of 28 generic-ballot polls over the past 45 days stands at Democrats plus 7.4 points. Our model gives Democrats a 48 in 100 chance of winning Senate control and Republicans 51 percent, with a mean of 50.2 Democratic seats; Democrats need 51 seats and Republicans 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to the Republicans. Ohio is one of the seats that sits inside that near-even picture.

In the House, our model puts the Democratic chance of a majority at 97 percent, with a mean of 243.1 seats against the 218 needed. That number carries a caveat of our own making: our simulation correlates error nationally, by census division, by state and by district, but we have no data to correlate demographically similar districts across state lines, so the House probability is marginally firmer than a fuller model would make it.