InsiderAdvantage finds Ohio Senate race close, and our Brown estimate eases to 71%
A one-point Brown edge in a new survey pulls our average margin to D+3.1, though the Democrat remains favored in our model of the special election.
Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 · October 1, 2026 at 2:02 PM EDT
An InsiderAdvantage survey of 1,200 likely voters, fielded September 28-29, has Democrat Sherrod Brown at 44% and Republican Sen. Jon Husted at 43% in the Ohio Senate special election. Another 4% chose another candidate and 2% an independent. A one-point gap is not a lead in a poll of this kind. The race in this survey is close.
Our model now gives Brown a 71 in 100 chance of winning, down from 75% in our run earlier today. Our average margin moved from D+3.8 to D+3.1. The poll did not change the shape of the race in our model. It shaded it slightly toward Husted, because it came in tighter than our average.
The spread of plausible outcomes remains wide. Our model's 5th-to-95th percentile range now runs from R+6.0 to D+12.3, compared with R+5.4 to D+13.0 before this poll. Both ends of that range sit well within reach of either candidate winning, which is why a 3-point average edge translates into a favorite rather than a near-certainty.
The seat matters for the chamber. Our model gives Democrats a 52% chance of winning Senate control and Republicans 47%, with Democrats averaging 50.5 seats in our simulations. Democrats need 51 seats for control. Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them.
Polls this dispatch was written from
- InsiderAdvantage · Sep 29, 2026 · n=1,200 · Ohio Senate
Every constant behind these numbers is on the methodology page.
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