Times/Siena poll leaves our Ohio Senate estimate for Brown nearly unchanged
A close New York Times/Siena result in the Ohio special election moves our model by a single point, from 72% to 71% for Sherrod Brown.
Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 · October 3, 2026 at 6:03 AM EDT
A New York Times/Siena University survey of 616 likely voters in Ohio, fielded September 22 to October 1, found Democrat Sherrod Brown at 48.8% and Republican Sen. Jon Husted at 46.1% in the special Senate election. That is a close race, not a clear lead for either candidate.
The poll confirmed what our model already showed rather than changing it. Our model now gives Brown a 71 in 100 chance of winning, down from 72% in the run completed at 4:32 AM ET today. Husted's chance moves from 28% to 29%. Our estimated margin is D+3.1, against D+3.2 before the poll was added.
The Times/Siena margin sits close to our own estimate, which is why it barely moved the number. The range of outcomes our model considers plausible is wide. Its 5th-to-95th percentile band runs from Husted winning by 6.0 points to Brown winning by 12.2. A Husted win remains well within that range.
The race matters for the chamber. Our model gives Democrats a 55% chance of winning Senate control and Republicans 45%, with Democrats averaging 50.7 seats in our simulations. Democrats need 51 seats for control; Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them. With 31 days until the November 3 election, Ohio is one of the seats where that margin is decided.
Polls this dispatch was written from
- The New York Times/Siena University · Oct 1, 2026 · n=616 · Ohio Senate
Every constant behind these numbers is on the methodology page.
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