Bowling Green poll puts Brown up 6 in Ohio and edges our estimate to 76%

A Bowling Green State University Democracy and Public Policy Research Network/YouGov survey of 1,000 likely voters, fielded September 29 to October 9, finds Democrat Sherrod Brown at 48% and Republican Sen. Jon Husted at 42% in Ohio's special Senate election. The same poll puts an independent option at 5% and other candidates at 3%.

Our model now gives Brown a 76 in 100 chance of winning the seat, up from 74% in our previous run this morning. Our projected margin moved from D+3.3 to D+3.6. The shift is modest. The poll's six-point gap is wider than our average, so it pulled the estimate slightly toward Brown without changing its shape.

The range of outcomes remains wide. Our model's 5th-to-95th percentile band runs from R+5.0 to D+12.1, compared with R+5.2 to D+11.9 before this poll. Husted keeps a 24% chance in our estimate, down from 26%. An outcome in which he wins is well within what our simulations produce.

Ohio matters for the chamber. Our model gives Democrats a 61% chance of winning Senate control and Republicans 38%. Democrats need 51 seats for a majority; Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them. Our model's average outcome is 51.0 Democratic seats, exactly the number Democrats need, which leaves little room for a loss in a state like Ohio.

The election is 18 days away.