Ohio polls put Brown ahead again, and our model follows to 56 in 100

An Abacus Data survey of 500 registered voters, fielded August 26-28, put Sherrod Brown at 40 percent and Jon Husted at 33 percent, with more than a quarter of respondents landing on neither name. It is the most recent poll of the Ohio Senate special election in our database.

Our model now gives Brown, the Democrat, a 56 in 100 chance against Husted, the Republican incumbent, with a mean margin of D+1.0. The run before it, at 4:03 PM ET today, had Brown at 42 percent and a mean margin of R+1.4. That is a move of 14 points in the win probability inside a single update, and it points back the other way from what this site published on August 28.

The rest of the recent polling is mixed rather than uniform. Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research, polling 1,008 registered voters for Fox News on August 6-10, had Brown at 53 percent and Husted at 45. Wedgewood Polls, with 800 likely voters on August 11-13, had Brown 48 percent to Husted 44, close enough that the race should be read as competitive rather than as a Brown lead. The New York Times/Siena University, surveying 601 likely voters June 15-28, had Husted at 49.8 percent and Brown at 47.0, also close.

The spread in our simulations reflects that. The 5th to 95th percentile range runs from R+9.4 to D+11.3, which is to say the model does not rule out a clear win for either candidate. A 56 percent chance is our estimate of Brown's odds, not a call on the outcome.

Nationally, our model gives Democrats a 49 percent chance of Senate control and Republicans 50 percent, with a mean of 50.2 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control; Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them.