Sponsored Nebraska poll finds a one-point race; our Ricketts forecast stays at 92%

A GBAO survey of 800 likely voters, fielded September 3-8 for Working Class Majority PAC, puts Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts at 46%. His opponent is at 47%. The poll's release records that 47% under a Democratic label. The only other candidate in our race listing is Dan Osborn, an independent. A one-point gap in a sample of this size is not a lead. The survey shows a close race.

Our forecast did not change. Our model gives Ricketts a 92 in 100 chance of winning the seat and gives the independent an 8% chance, the same as in our previous run this morning. Our model's average margin remains Ricketts by 14.5 points.

The poll nudged only the edges of our range. Our model's 5th-to-95th percentile outcomes now run from Ricketts by 31.4 points to the independent by 2.4 points. In the prior run they ran from Ricketts by 31.2 to the independent by 2.3. That is a small change, and the central estimate stayed put.

The survey was paid for by a political action committee, and its fieldwork ended September 8. Our model weighs it alongside everything else it has on the race. One close poll from a sponsor does not outweigh the rest of the evidence our model uses.

Nationally, our model gives Democrats a 56% chance of winning Senate control. Our model's average outcome is 50.8 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for a majority, because a 50-50 tie goes to the Republicans through the vice president.