Two older sponsored Nebraska polls show a close race; our Ricketts estimate edges to 93%

Two GBAO polls sponsored by Working Class Majority PAC entered our Nebraska Senate average today. Both are months old. Our model moved slightly after they were added and now gives Pete Ricketts, the Republican incumbent, a 93 in 100 chance of winning. That is up from 92% in our run earlier today.

The first survey, of 800 likely voters fielded April 16-20, found Ricketts at 45% and the non-Republican line at 46%. The second, also of 800 likely voters, fielded July 22-26, found the two sides tied at 47% each. Both results describe a close race. Our data records the non-Republican share in these releases under a Democratic label with no candidate named. The candidates in our race file are Ricketts and Dan Osborn, an independent.

Our model reads the race differently from these two surveys. It puts the average margin at Ricketts by 14.5 points, essentially unchanged from 14.4 points before the update. The chance of a candidate other than the Republican winning slipped from 8% to 7%. Our range for the outcome, from the 5th to the 95th percentile, runs from Ricketts by 31.0 points to Osborn by 2.1 points, nearly identical to the earlier run.

The new numbers confirm the picture already in place rather than change it. Nationally, our model gives Democrats a 54% chance of winning Senate control, with 51 seats needed and a 50-50 tie going to the Republicans. Our average of Democratic seats stands at 50.7.