Nebraska poll puts Ricketts behind by four; our forecast barely moves

A SurveyUSA poll of 503 likely voters in Nebraska, sponsored by Grant Forbes, LLC and fielded September 8-13, records Republican incumbent Pete Ricketts at 42 percent and a non-Republican line, labeled Democrat in the released results, at 46 percent. The candidate field in this race, as our model has it, is Ricketts and independent Dan Osborn. No margin of error accompanies the numbers in front of us, so a four-point gap on a sample that size is best read as a close race rather than a measured advantage.

Our forecast did not move on it. The model gives Ricketts a 93 percent chance of winning, an independent or other candidate a 7 percent chance, and the Democrat effectively none. The mean margin is R+15.9. The only change from our previous run, at 12:32 PM ET on September 14, is at the edge of the distribution: the 90 percent range now runs from R+33.5 to I+1.8, against R+33.5 to I+1.6 before. That is a rounding-scale adjustment, not a reassessment.

The distance between the polling and the model is the story here, and it is not a new one. Our average continues to price in far more Republican strength in Nebraska than the recent state surveys show, and the new poll did not narrow that gap enough to register. Anyone reading the polls alone would see a tight contest; our model reads the same polls alongside everything else it weighs and puts Ricketts well ahead on average, while leaving a tail in which a non-Democratic challenger wins narrowly.

Nationally, our model gives Democrats a 50 in 100 chance of Senate control, with a mean of 50.3 seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control and Republicans 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them.