Echelon poll finds a one-point Nebraska race; our Ricketts estimate is unchanged
The NetChoice-sponsored survey shows Osborn within a point, but our model moved its average margin by a tenth of a point and its win probabilities not at all.
Written by the newsroom · anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 · October 27, 2026 at 1:02 PM EDT
A new Echelon Insights survey of 407 likely voters, fielded October 16-23 and sponsored by NetChoice, finds a close race for Nebraska's Senate seat. Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts takes 47% and independent Dan Osborn takes 46%. Robin Richards draws 2% and Chuck Conboy 1%.
The poll did not change our forecast. Our model gives Ricketts a 95 in 100 chance of winning, the same as in our previous run at 12:32 PM ET today. It puts Osborn's chance at 5%. Our model's average margin moved from Ricketts by 14.4 points to Ricketts by 14.5 points. Its range, from the 5th to the 95th percentile, now runs from Ricketts by 28.8 points to Ricketts by 0.2 points.
The Echelon result sits outside the bulk of that range. Its one-point margin is far narrower than our model's average. A single sponsored survey with a sample of 407 carries limited weight against the rest of the model's inputs, and the forecast reflects that.
Nationally, our model gives Democrats a 62% chance of winning Senate control and Republicans a 38% chance. Democrats need 51 seats for a majority. Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them. Our model's average outcome is 51.2 Democratic seats. The election is seven days away.
Polls this dispatch was written from
- Echelon Insights · Oct 23, 2026 · n=407 · Nebraska Senate
Every constant behind these numbers is on the methodology page.