New co/efficient Nebraska poll finds a close race; our Ricketts forecast holds at 93%

A co/efficient survey of 1,113 likely voters, fielded September 28-30, finds the Nebraska Senate race close. On one ballot question it has Republican Pete Ricketts at 47% and a candidate listed as a Democrat at 44%. On a second question from the same survey it has Ricketts at 44%, the Democratic-listed candidate at 40% and other candidates at 1%. The poll's published results do not name the non-Republican candidate. The only other candidate in our race file is Dan Osborn, who is running as an independent.

The new numbers changed nothing of substance in our forecast. Our model gives Ricketts a 93 in 100 chance of winning, the same as in our previous run earlier today. It puts the chance of a candidate outside the two major parties winning at 7% and the Democratic chance at 0%. Our model's average margin is unchanged at R+14.6.

The only movement was at the edges of our range. Our model's 5th-to-95th percentile range now runs from R+30.8 to I+1.7, against R+30.9 to I+1.6 before this poll was added.

That leaves the same gap this site has described in recent coverage. This survey, like the other recent polls we have reported on, shows a race within a few points. Our model's central estimate remains a margin of more than 14 points for Ricketts.

Nationally, our model gives Democrats a 53% chance of winning Senate control, with an average of 50.6 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control; Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them.