Sullivan 49, Peltola 46 in new Alaska poll; our forecast moves a point

A co/efficient survey of 799 likely voters in Alaska, fielded September 14-17, puts Republican Dan Sullivan at 49 percent and Democrat Mary Peltola at 46 percent. The three-point gap is small enough, on that sample, to be consistent with either candidate ahead. The race is close in this poll.

Our forecast barely moved. We now give Peltola a 25 in 100 chance of winning the seat, against 24 percent in our previous run earlier the same day, with Sullivan at 75 percent. Our mean margin is R+7.1, a shade narrower than the R+7.4 we had before. Our 5th-to-95th percentile range runs from R+24.5 to D+10.4, which is another way of saying we do not think this state's polling has pinned the outcome down.

What is new is the direction, not the size, of the result. Our two most recent poll reactions in Alaska described surveys with Peltola in front; this one has Sullivan in front by three. Our model's average continues to sit well to the Republican side of the individual survey numbers, and a single poll finishing in the same place as the model's lean does not change the estimate much.

The seat matters to the chamber arithmetic. Our model gives Democrats a 48 percent chance of Senate control and Republicans 51 percent, with a mean of 50.2 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control and Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to the Republicans. That asymmetry is why a race we rate at 25 percent for the Democrat still carries weight in the overall picture. Our national generic-ballot average stands at D+7.5 across 27 polls in the last 45 days.