Times/Siena puts Peltola at 50.07 percent in Alaska; our forecast ticks up a point

A New York Times/Siena University survey of 504 likely voters, fielded September 24 to October 1, has Democrat Mary Peltola at 50.07 percent and Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan at 43.07 percent in the Alaska Senate race.

The poll moved our forecast by one point. Our model now gives Peltola a 26 in 100 chance of winning, up from 25 percent in the run earlier this morning. Sullivan's chance is 74 percent, down from 75 percent. The mean margin in our simulations did not change and remains R+6.5.

The spread of outcomes our model considers plausible is still wide. Its 5th to 95th percentile range runs from R+22.7 to D+9.7, against R+22.5 to D+9.7 before this poll. Sullivan's lower edge stretched slightly. The upper edge for Peltola held.

The gap between this survey and our forecast is the substance here. The poll has Peltola above Sullivan, yet our model's average outcome still favors him by 6.5 points. One survey of about 500 voters, weighed alongside the other inputs to our forecast, was enough to nudge the probability but not the central estimate.

The race matters for the national picture. Our model gives Democrats a 55 percent chance of winning Senate control, with an average of 50.7 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for a majority. Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them.