Quantus Insights has Sullivan and Peltola nearly even; our Alaska forecast stays put

A Quantus Insights survey of 758 likely voters in Alaska, fielded September 28-30, found Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan at 46.5% and Democrat Mary Peltola at 46.2%. A gap of three-tenths of a point is no lead for either candidate. The poll shows a close race.

Our forecast did not move on the new numbers. Our model gives Peltola a 26 in 100 chance of winning the seat and Sullivan a 74% chance, the same as in our previous run at 10:32 AM ET today. Our model's average margin remains Sullivan by 6.5 points. Its 5th-to-95th percentile range runs from Sullivan by 22.6 to Peltola by 9.7, a shift of one-tenth of a point at the Republican end since the last run.

This poll is closer than our model's central estimate, but a near-even result falls comfortably within that range. One poll from one firm was not enough to change the picture our model already had.

The seat matters for the chamber. Our model gives Democrats a 55% chance of winning Senate control and Republicans a 44% chance. Democrats need 51 seats for a majority; Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them. Our model's average outcome is 50.7 Democratic seats, short of the 51 they need, which is why a seat like Alaska, where our model still favors the Republican, carries weight in the overall count.