Alaska Senate forecast gives Sullivan a wider margin and Peltola better odds

The most recent survey in our Alaska file is from Alaska Survey Research, fielded August 2-5 among 1,371 likely voters. It put Mary Peltola at 50.8% and Dan Sullivan at 49.2% — a gap well inside sampling error, and so a close race rather than a lead for either candidate. A New York Times/Siena University poll of 593 likely voters, fielded June 15-29, had Sullivan at 47.5% and Peltola at 45.1%, also too close to separate.

Our model now gives Peltola a 24 in 100 chance of winning the seat and Sullivan 76%. The previous run, earlier the same afternoon, had Peltola at 19% and Sullivan at 81%. The mean margin moved the other way, to R+8.3 from R+5.6, and the 5th-to-95th percentile range widened to R+27.2 through D+10.2 from R+16.1 through D+4.9. The model is now more Republican at the center and less certain at the edges, and the added uncertainty is what raises Peltola's win probability. The polling did not change between the two runs.

The poll record itself has been narrow and steady. Alaska Survey Research had Peltola at 47.7% to Sullivan's 45.9% in a survey of 1,708 likely voters fielded October 10-15, 2025, and 48.0% to 46.4% among 1,681 likely voters fielded January 8-11. Data for Progress had Peltola 46%, Sullivan 45% among 823 registered voters fielded October 17-23, 2025. Public Policy Polling, for the DSCC, had Peltola 49%, Sullivan 47% among 611 registered voters fielded January 16-17. Every one of those margins sits inside the poll's own error; our mean margin sits to Sullivan's side of all of them.

Nationally, our generic-ballot average stands at D+6.5 across 28 polls over the past 45 days. Our model gives Democrats a 49% chance of Senate control and Republicans 50%, with a mean of 50.2 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control; Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them.