Trafalgar poll puts Peltola at 45.5 in Alaska; our forecast edges down a point

A Trafalgar Group survey of 1,079 likely voters, fielded September 22-24, puts Democrat Mary Peltola at 45.5 percent in the Alaska Senate race. The Republican share in the results we received for this poll is incomplete and not a plausible figure. We are not reporting a head-to-head margin from it.

Our model now gives Peltola a 26 in 100 chance of winning, down from 27 percent in our previous run earlier this morning. Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan's chance is 74 percent. Our average projected margin is unchanged at R+6.4. The range of outcomes is essentially the same. Our 5th-to-95th percentile span runs from R+23.0 to D+10.3, against R+23.1 to D+10.3 before.

The new numbers confirm the picture rather than change it. The one-point shift puts Peltola's chance back where it stood in our September 22 update. Our model still shows a wide band of possible results in Alaska. It still has Sullivan favored.

Nationally, our model gives Democrats a 56 percent chance of winning Senate control. They need 51 seats for a majority. Republicans need 50, because a 50-50 tie goes to the Republican vice president. Our model's average outcome is 50.8 Democratic seats, which leaves races like Alaska's close to the line. Our generic ballot average stands at D+8.2 across 28 polls from the past 45 days.