New UT-2 poll nudges our forecast toward Crosby, but Moore remains favored

A Lighthouse Research survey of 515 registered voters in Utah's 2nd District, fielded September 10-24, found Republican Blake Moore at 39% and Democrat Peter Crosby at 34%, with 4.9% choosing another option. That leaves a large share of respondents undecided. With a sample of that size and many voters uncommitted, the five-point gap reads as a close race rather than a settled one.

The poll moved our forecast modestly. Our model now gives Crosby a 10 in 100 chance of winning the seat, up from 7% in the run published earlier this morning. Moore's chance stands at 90%, down from 93%. Our projected margin narrowed from R+13.0 to R+11.2.

The range of outcomes our model considers plausible shifted with it. The 5th to 95th percentile now runs from R+25.4 to D+2.9, compared with R+27.2 to D+1.2 before the poll was added. A Crosby win remains inside that range, at its edge.

The survey ran higher for Crosby than our prior estimate, which is why the forecast moved. It is one poll of registered voters, and our model weighs it against the district's other inputs rather than adopting its margin outright. The result is a race that is somewhat less lopsided in our estimate than it was, with Moore still the clear favorite.

Nationally, our model gives Democrats a 98% chance of winning a House majority, with a mean of 245.5 Democratic seats against the 218 needed. Our simulation correlates error nationally, by census division, by state and by district, but not across demographically similar districts in different places, so that House figure is a little firmer than it would be with that term included.