Democrats' Senate chance sits at 62% as Kansas and Mississippi move in our model

Our model gives Democrats a 62 in 100 chance of winning Senate control, and Republicans 38%. Democrats need 51 seats for a majority. Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them. Our model's mean outcome is 51.0 Democratic seats, at the threshold. In the House, our model gives Democrats a 99% chance of control against 1% for Republicans, with a mean of 245 Democratic seats against the 218 needed. Our House simulation correlates error nationally, by census division, by state and by district. It does not link demographically similar districts in different places, for which we have no data, so that House figure is somewhat firmer than it would otherwise be.

Our generic ballot average stands at D+8.2 across 36 polls from the past 45 days, unchanged from yesterday. Recent entries include an ActiVote survey of 1,000 likely voters, fielded October 4-14, with Democrats at 53.3% and Republicans at 46.7%. An RMG Research poll for Napolitan News Service, fielded October 5-13, had Democrats at 51% and Republicans at 43% among 2,000 registered voters, and 54% to 43% among likely voters.

Kansas was the largest Senate mover. Our estimate of the Democratic chance there rose from 51% to 56%. An InsiderAdvantage survey of 1,200 likely voters, fielded October 13-14, found Roger Marshall at 48% and Adam Hamilton at 47%, a close race. Our estimate for Democrats in Mississippi fell from 6% to 1%; a Wedgewood Polls survey of 511 likely voters, fielded October 12-14, had Cindy Hyde-Smith at 52% and Scott Colom at 48%. Our South Carolina Senate estimate for Democrats fell from 10% to 6%.

InsiderAdvantage also polled Maine and Texas over October 13-14, each with 1,200 likely voters. In Maine, Troy Jackson had 49% and Susan Collins 47%, a close race. In Texas, Ken Paxton had 49% and James Talarico 48%. A separate ActiVote survey of 400 likely Texas voters, fielded September 30 to October 14, had Talarico at 51.9% and Paxton at 48.1%. With samples of that size, both Texas results describe a close race.

In the House, our Democratic estimate in MN-1 rose from 22% to 29%, and in AK-1 from 0% to 5%. In CA-48 it fell from 33% to 27%. A Tulchin Research survey of 500 likely voters in ME-2, fielded October 12-14, had Matthew Dunlap at 50% and Paul LePage at 46%.