Democrats at 92 in 100 in the House, 44 percent in the Senate

Our model gives Democrats a 92 in 100 chance of winning a House majority as of 6:30 AM ET on August 26, with a mean of 240.7 Democratic seats against the 218 needed for control. That is down from the 95 percent we published on August 24. The Senate is closer: 44 percent for the Democrats, 56 percent for the Republicans, with a mean of 49.9 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control and Republicans 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to the Republicans.

Our generic ballot average stands at D+6.5, drawn from 27 polls over the last 45 days. The most recent entries are tightly bunched. Emerson College, polling 1,000 likely voters August 16-17, had Democrats at 51 percent and Republicans at 43. Echelon Insights, with 1,002 likely voters August 13-17, had it 50-45. The Bullfinch Group, fielding August 14-17, had Democrats up 45-40 among 1,200 adults and 42-37 among 1,000 registered voters. Reuters/Ipsos, over the same dates, had Democrats up 41-36 among 876 registered voters and 35-30 among 1,166 adults.

The largest movement in our Senate numbers came in Ohio, where the Democratic win probability fell 14.6 points to 48 percent, and in Michigan, where it rose 8.3 points to 57 percent. Maine moved 9.5 points toward the Democrats, to 88 percent. Alaska moved 9.2 points the other way, to 23 percent. In the House, AK-1 moved 73.2 points, from 73 percent to zero, and OH-7 fell 12 points to 54 percent.

Several state polls landed in the last week. Saint Anselm College surveyed 1,411 New Hampshire likely voters August 17-18 and found Chris Pappas at 49 percent to Scott Brown's 37; the same pollster's survey of 701 likely voters in NH-2 had the Democrat at 50 percent and the Republican at 35. Deep Root Analytics polled 597 Minnesota registered voters August 17-18 and found the Democrat at 50 percent to the Republican's 45. In Idaho, The Bullfinch Group polled 608 likely voters August 16-19 and found independent Todd Achilles at 38 percent and Republican Jim Risch at 33, a close result at that sample size. J.L. Partners had Tom Cotton at 51 percent to Democrat Hallie Shoffner's 35 among 803 Arkansas likely voters, August 14-18, and the Republican ahead 50-40 in NY-21 among 500 likely voters, August 15-17.

One caveat on the House figure. Our simulation correlates error nationally, by census division, by state and within each district, but it does not include a term linking demographically similar districts in different places, because we have no cluster data for one. That omission makes our House control probability somewhat firmer than a fuller error model would leave it. We have not measured the size of the gap for this run.