New Rhode Island poll shows Reed up 20, and our forecast barely moves

A University of New Hampshire survey of 750 likely voters in Rhode Island, fielded August 20-24, puts Democratic incumbent Jack Reed at 51 percent and Republican Raymond McKay at 31 percent. That is a 20-point margin.

Our model gives Reed a greater than 99 percent chance of winning the seat, and has since before this poll arrived. The mean projected margin is now D+22.8, with a 5th-to-95th percentile range of D+12.0 to D+33.2. The previous run, at 6:30 PM ET on August 28, had the mean at D+23.8 and the range at D+13.5 to D+34.4. The new number is a one-point shift toward the Republican in the expected margin and nothing more; the win probability did not move.

The practical content of the poll, then, is confirmation. A single survey showing a 20-point margin in a race our average already had in the low twenties does not change the distribution in any way a reader should act on. The wider takeaway is that Rhode Island is not among the seats that decide the Senate.

That contest remains close in our model. Democrats need 51 seats for a Senate majority and Republicans 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to the Republicans. Our model gives Democrats a 44 in 100 chance of a Senate majority, with a mean of 49.9 Democratic seats, against 56 percent for Republicans. In the House, where 218 seats are needed, our model puts the Democratic chance of a majority at 94 percent, with a mean of 241.2 seats.