Two UNH polls, four months apart, leave the Rhode Island Senate race where it was

A University of New Hampshire survey of 722 likely voters in Rhode Island, fielded August 20-24, put Democratic incumbent Jack Reed at 51 percent and Republican Raymond McKay at 31 percent, with 4 percent for an independent. An earlier University of New Hampshire poll of 556 likely voters, fielded April 16-20, had Reed at 52 percent and McKay at 34 percent.

Our forecast reflects both, and it has not moved in any meaningful way. The model's mean margin is now D+22.8, against D+22.9 in the previous run earlier the same afternoon. The 5th-to-95th percentile range is D+12.6 to D+33.3, close to the D+12.4 to D+33.4 it showed before. Reed's chance of winning rounds to 100 in 100; that is the arithmetic of a race where the polling and the model's fundamentals point the same direction, not a claim that the outcome is fixed.

The two University of New Hampshire readings are the substance here. Four months apart, from the same pollster and the same population, they differ by about two points on each candidate. Reed's share is essentially flat; McKay's is three points lower in August than in April. Neither shift is large enough to read as movement.

Rhode Island is not where the Senate is decided. Our model gives Democrats a 49 percent chance of winning a majority and Republicans 50 percent, with a mean of 50.2 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control; Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to their side. On that math, races with margins in the low twenties matter to the seat count and not to the probability. Nationally, our generic-ballot average stands at D+6.5 across 28 polls over the last 45 days.