Reed leads by 23 in Embold poll, and our Rhode Island margin edges down
The Salve Regina-sponsored survey trims our projected Reed margin by less than a point, while his chance of winning stays at the top of our scale.
Written by the newsroom · anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 · October 20, 2026 at 6:03 AM EDT
Correction: the forecasts in this article predate a polling-data repair. Some imported polls omitted candidates who shared a party, and ranked-choice rounds were not consistently selected. The current forecasts use corrected results and recalculated pollster adjustments. See current forecasts.
Democratic Sen. Jack Reed leads Republican Raymond McKay 55 percent to 32 percent in an Embold Research survey of 815 likely voters, fielded October 5-8 and sponsored by the Salve Regina University Pell Center for International Relations and Public Policy. Another 4 percent in that poll chose an independent option. That is a 23-point gap.
The poll confirms the shape of the race rather than changing it. Our model still gives Reed a 100 in 100 chance of winning, the same as in its previous run earlier this morning. What moved was the size of the expected margin. Our model now projects Reed ahead by 26.6 points, down from 27.3 points in the 4:32 AM ET run.
The range of outcomes our model considers plausible shifted slightly as well. Its 5th-to-95th percentile band now runs from Reed ahead by 18.3 points to Reed ahead by 35.1 points. The prior run put that band at 18.9 to 35.6 points. The Embold margin sits inside both ranges, below the model's central estimate, which is why the projection ticked down.
Nationally, our model gives Democrats a 60% chance of winning Senate control, with an average of 50.9 Democratic seats against the 51 they need. Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them. With 14 days until the November 3 election, Rhode Island is not where that contest is being decided.
Polls this dispatch was written from
- Embold Research · Oct 8, 2026 · n=815 · Rhode Island Senate
Every constant behind these numbers is on the methodology page.