Reed leads by 20 in new UNH poll, and our Rhode Island number holds

A University of New Hampshire survey of 595 likely voters in Rhode Island, fielded September 17-21, puts Democratic incumbent Jack Reed at 53 percent and Republican Raymond McKay at 33 percent, with 5 percent for an independent.

Our forecast is unchanged in substance. The model gives Reed a 100 in 100 chance of winning the seat, the same as in our previous run earlier on September 24. The projected margin moved from D+25.1 to D+24.0, with a 5th-to-95th percentile range of D+14.5 to D+33.5, down slightly from D+15.6 to D+34.6. That is movement inside the noise of a safe-seat estimate, not a change in the outcome the model expects.

The poll therefore confirms rather than revises. A 20-point margin in a 595-person sample sits comfortably within the range our model was already projecting, and the new data did not pull the central estimate far.

The wider picture is closer. Our model gives Democrats a 53 percent chance of winning Senate control and Republicans 46 percent, with a mean of 50.6 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control; Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them. Rhode Island is not where that margin is decided. In the House, our model gives Democrats a 98 percent chance of a majority and a mean of 245.7 seats against the 218 needed. That House figure rests on error correlated at the national, divisional, state and district levels; we have no data to correlate demographically similar districts across state lines, so our House probability is marginally firmer than a fuller model would make it.