Alme leads by 19 in new Montana poll as our projected margin widens to R+14.8

Republican Kurt Alme leads the open Montana Senate race by 19 points in a new American Pulse Research & Polling survey of 604 likely voters, fielded September 19-24 for NonStop Local. Alme has 45.1%, independent Seth Bodnar 26.1% and Democrat Alani Bankhead 18.9%. Other candidates take 2.7%.

The poll moved our forecast. Our model now projects an average Republican margin of R+14.8, up from R+10.7 in the run an hour earlier. That is wider than the R+11 this site reported on September 24. Our model's 5th-to-95th percentile range now runs from R+24.1 to R+5.6. In the previous run it ran from R+20.1 to R+1.4, so the Democratic end of the range no longer comes near even.

Our model now puts the Democrat's chance of winning the seat at 0%, down from 3%. It puts the Republican's chance at 100%, up from 97%. Those are estimates of a chance drawn from our simulations, not a call of the result, and 36 days remain before the November 3 election.

In this survey Bodnar, not Bankhead, is Alme's nearest challenger. Bodnar trails by 19 points and Bankhead by 26.2. Both gaps are large enough that the survey does not describe a close race.

Nationally, our model gives Democrats a 54 in 100 chance of winning Senate control and Republicans a 45% chance. Our model projects Democrats at an average of 50.7 seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control. Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them.