Sponsored Montana poll finds Bodnar and Alme a point apart; our forecast stays put

A new Montana Senate poll finds a close race between the independent and the Republican. A Concord Public Opinion Partners survey of 410 likely voters, fielded October 22-23 and sponsored by Education Reform Now Advocacy, has Seth Bodnar, the independent, at 39% and Kurt Alme, the Republican, at 38%. Alani Bankhead, the Democrat, is at 10%, and Kyle Austin is at 2%. A one-point gap in a sample that size is not a lead.

The poll did not change our forecast. Our model's mean margin in the race is R+14.8, the same as in the run an hour earlier. The 5th-to-95th percentile range moved by a tenth of a point at one end, to R+22.8 to R+6.8 from R+22.8 to R+6.9. Our model gives Bankhead a 0 in 100 chance of winning the seat and Alme a 100% chance, both unchanged.

The survey's three-way split is the reason it sits apart from our margin. It shows Bodnar, not Bankhead, as the candidate within reach of Alme, and it was paid for by an advocacy group. Our model treats it as one input among the polls of this race.

The seat is open; Republican Steve Daines is the incumbent. Nationally, our model gives Democrats a 65% chance of winning Senate control, with a mean of 51.4 Democratic seats against the 51 they need. Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them. Montana does not figure in that Democratic path in our current numbers. The election is November 3.